Rimkus, E.,Valiukas, D., Kažys, J., Gečaitė, I., Stonevičius, E.
Dryness dynamics of the Baltic Sea region
The dynamics in dryness over the Baltic Sea region during
the observation period of 1960–2009, as well as the climate prediction for the
21st century have been evaluated in this research. The dryness of the investigated
area has been examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The
precipitation amount data provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the
University of East Anglia have been used in this study. Projections of future
dryness changes are based on the output data of the regional CCLM model driven
by A1B and B1 emission scenarios. The increase of SPI values, i.e. a decline in
dryness, have been found over the last fifty years in the major part of the
investigated area. However, the probability of short-term droughts remain high
against the background of a general decrease in dryness. The increased dryness
during the analyzed period has been found only in the southern part of the
Baltic Sea region. Similar changes are also foreseen for the 21st century. The
dryness is expected to increase in the south (especially in summer), while the
central and northern parts of the region are likely to witness the recurrence
of a drought decrease.