Rukšėnienė, V., Dailidienė, I., Myrberg, K., Dučinskas, K.
A simple approach for statistical modelling of ice phenomena
in the Curonian Lagoon, the south-eastern Baltic Sea
Abstract. The paper addresses the possibilities of
spatio-temporal statistical modelling of basic hydrophysical and meteorological
parameters of sea surface layer in the south-eastern Baltic Sea, Curonian
Lagoon. The aim of the paper is to compare two methods (multivariate linear
regression and regression kriging) for the analysis of changes and trends of
ice phenomena, their dependence on changes in the air temperature, sea surface
temperature and water salinity. The prediction of ice conditions for several
locations at different distances from the reference sites shows that spatial
information is an extremely important factor in making forecasts. The
application of the regression kriging is more efficient than the multivariate
linear regression for predicting the ice phenomena in semi-enclosed basins and
lagoons.