Serkan Öztürk

An evaluation of the characteristic aftershock parameters following the 24 January 2020 
Mw = 6.8 Elazığ-Sivrice (Türkiye) earthquake

Abstract A comprehensive evaluation of region-time-magnitude behaviours of aftershocks following the 24 January 2020 (Mw = 6.8) Elazığ-Sivrice (Türkiye) earthquake was achieved by using the characteristic parameters such as b-value, p-value, Dc-value and Mamax value of aftershock occurrences. The b-value was calculated as 0.82 ± 0.02 by considering the magnitude of the completeness value as Mcomp = 1.9, and it is relatively small compared to typical b ≈ 1 for the magnitude-frequency relationship of aftershocks. This low b-value may also be caused by the abundance of aftershocks with ML ≥ 4.0. The p-value was computed as 0.80 ± 0.02 with c-value = 0.279 ± 0.098 and is smaller than the global value of p ≈ 1. This low p-value may be due to a relatively slow decay rate of aftershock activity, and the modified Omori model seems appropriate for the estimation of decay parameters. The Dc-value was estimated as 1.87 ± 0.07. This large value shows that aftershocks are homogeneously distributed and more clustered at larger scales/in smaller areas. The temporal variation of b-value indicates that decreases in b-value may result from the gradual increase in the effective stress following the larger aftershocks. The lowest b-values and Mamax values greater than 5.0 were observed in the north, south and southwest parts of the mainshock including Pütürge and Erkenek segments. These results show that there is an apparent relation between the smallest b-values and the largest Mamax values. The largest p-values were estimated in and around the main shock including Pütürge segment. The regions with the smallest b-value and the largest p-value have high stress and coseismic deformation, respectively. Stress variations and coseismic deformation are extremely effective on the changes of b- and p-values. As a remarkable result, aftershock hazard following the mainshock may be considered extremely related to aftershock parameters, and detailed analyses of the region-time-magnitude characteristics of aftershocks are recommended for a preliminary evaluation following the mainshock.


Keywords aftershock hazard; value; b-value; p-value; Dc-value

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