Juras Šukys, Justinas Kilpys

Characterization of climate change in Lithuania in 1961–2020 using climate extreme indices

Abstract Climate change manifests not only through shifts in mean conditions but also through increasing extremes. We analyzed changes in 12 extreme temperature and precipitation indices in Lithuania for the 1961–2020 period. We assessed trends and compared change in exceedance probabilities between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. Results shows that the probability of hot days exceeding the 95^th percentile more than doubled at both Vilnius and Klaipėda stations, while the probability of experiencing 10 very cold nights per year decreased from 65% to 25%. Over the past 60 years, the growing season length increased by 10 days, with the largest extension in Nida (27 days). Tropical nights began to emerge; however, a statistically significant increasing trend was determined only in Nida (0.5 nights per decade). Extreme precipitation also intensified: days with more than 20 mm of rainfall increased from 1 to 7 per year by the end of the study period. At the same time, the number of consecutive dry days also increased, indicating the increasing weather extremes in Lithuania as the global climate changes.

Doi https://doi.org/10.5200/baltica.2025.2.6

Keywords climate change; climate extreme indices; temperature; precipitation. climate variability; Lithuania; Baltic region