Rrapo Ormeni, Serkan Öztürk, Erald Silo, Rrezart Bozo, Ismail Hoxha, Dionald Mucaj

Spatial and temporal analysis of seismicity and seismotectonic parameters in Albania region

Santrauka A comprehensive analysis of b-value for the Albanian earthquakes was conducted using the instrumental earthquake catalogue of Albanian region. A total of 38,816 seismic events with magnitudes M_L ≥ 0.1 on the Richter scale were utilized. Statistical characteristics of the seismicity were examined based on b-value, as defined by the Gutenberg-Richter law. Considering the magnitude completeness (Mc-value) as 2.7, b-value was estimated as 1.09 ± 0.08 and it indicates a normal stress regime in the region. The Mc-value varies from 1.5 to 3.4, and spatial distribution of b-value ranges from 0.79 to 1.16. Higher b-values (> 1.0) were detected in the southernmost part of Albania, whereas lower b-values (< 1.0) were found in the western part, particularly within the Adriatic-Ionian fault zone and the Lushnje-Elbasan-Dibër transversal fault zone, as well as in the south-eastern Leskovik-Erseka-Korça fault zone. Regions with lower b-values correspond to areas with larger-magnitude events, while higher b-values are associated with smaller earthquakes. These findings suggest that b-values across Albania generally round 1.0, with lower values indicating moderate stress accumulation in the western region and within two other active seismic belts. The b-values less than 1.0 may signal areas of increased seismic potential. The occurrence probability of earthquakes across varying magnitudes was found to be very high (99%–100%) for seismic events with M_L between 0.5 and 4.5, and lower (less than 95%) for events with M_L ≥ 5.5; it varied from 1% to 60% for events with larger M_L ≥ 6.0 for different Tr values. Recurrence periods for smaller magnitudes are relatively short (less than 1 year for magnitudes from 1.0 to 4.2), whereas for larger magnitudes (5.0 to 6.0), recurrence periods are longer, about 100 years. The Albanian region is characterized by a complex geological setting and significant seismic activity, and, thus, it can be stated that these types of analyses may be important in terms of seismotectonic evaluation and seismic hazard.

Doi https://doi.org/10.5200/baltica.2025.2.2

Raktažodžiai seismicity; b-value; probability; recurrence period; seismic hazard

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